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0.25 rate cut


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熱賣及精選
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair, John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent; and Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent.



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Federal Reserve cuts rates by a quarter point

The Fed has lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75 per cent to 2 per cent.



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港幣作為美金代用劵,今次都應該唔會跟。


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下一步會是QE


減息會點呢


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謝謝分享


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QE4 推出的時間性,會否跟樓主說要在第四季,還是一個疑問。

本來特為明年連任,他的個人利益通常會考慮到怎樣增加支持度。

從經濟角度去看,現在米割的失業率是有史以來最底,真正不要令到米股崩塌,過去歷史看,就業數據都有一大指標。根據這相互指標,似乎這不是推出QE的誘因。相反地,如果預視失業率即將反向,而米割欲就大選連任前造勢,QE4才是他們重用來刺激股市製造假像的手段。



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引用:
原帖由 Maskaki 於 2019-9-19 02:13 AM 發表

下一步會是QE
股災後?



fans 特色 :
1) 永遠向前看 , 有理想,  目光非常長遠
2) 所有講過某台 負面的都是'x手
3) 所有同意了某台 負面的post都是 x手 的friend
4) 人地講 a 台,  佢地一定講 b 台點點點 喇 , 扯開話題

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此外,又從過去歷史數據看(這是另一位大師之分析),每次進入減息周期,即使不同步,但股市最終都有下調趨勢。

對比講股與米股,米股今年波幅有機會走完,講股波幅似乎還未完成。參考2015年,當年講股一開波就急升然後急跌到九月,第四季反彈修正年結目標。4年後,又系作為大選準備,今年米股與講股走勢似乎又拿來重用。按講股去年收市25845,今年即使低收25000到26000區間,都不見得對比去年埋單嚟得太難看。

再進一步從圖表角度睇,講股中段9浪,長線行了大5浪兼雙頂33000/34000,99年收市二幻七,17年已做咗29919。而米股99年IXIC 收3900,今年年結見標7900附近就能滿足,現價8177,這就是代表講股已不再跟米股同步嗎?而講股實質已先行一步嗎?

這樣的話,如何理解今年低拋出QE4方案來呢?

[ 本帖最後由 公園小OL 於 2019-9-19 11:19 AM 編輯 ]



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如果按照米割之規劃,
又能增加明年11月連任支持度,
又要符合米股7900附近年結,
又要利用米股300/400點科技股指數動搖第4季講股幾千點,
又要穩住年底結算大戶目標(但大戶全年底目標價亦可以系10月或11月見到),
又要做到4年前重覆既手法响2016年底第一季大跌震倉,
又要玩一個突然剎出QE4這白武士出場去振奮人心,
QE4最可能既時間點,相信會系12月或者系明年1月

[ 本帖最後由 公園小OL 於 2019-9-19 11:21 AM 編輯 ]



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如果米股IXIC今年closing見頂,不等於明年吾可以瘋狂跑多兩千點,這兩千點就要靠QE4戲碼配合。

而講股若要所謂見底回升,即使扮作與米股同步,可能都不會超出3幻點雙肩。

最難樂觀既系,米割就業數據現已達到歷史低位,一回升,所有資產價格都會骨排式下跌。

單從就業數據,米股即使明年可以因QE4祝福而衝上帝雲霄,年底都吾見得收升。2020隱約開始、2021、2022,就系一個下跌期。之後,到時能否再有力反彈,以侵侵個性,吾再連任,又怎會出力撐市?

[ 本帖最後由 公園小OL 於 2019-9-19 11:35 AM 編輯 ]



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今次議息佈告已經有提到隨時會重啓QE


引用:
原帖由 Maskaki 於 2019-9-19 12:08 PM 發表

今次議息佈告已經有提到隨時會重啓QE
佢哋留番第一季同第四季走完全年波幅



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如果一定要堅持拓,無非系個就業數據可以見下滑趨勢。某年就業數據見底,都要延後八個月,股市先開始大跌。


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