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特朗普開始急了?

特朗普開始急了? E-mail 此主題給朋友

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過去年多,中美貿易談判牽動著市場氣氛。大市遇好消息則升,壞消息則跌,這都是眾所週知。惟大家有否留意,一直在說三道四的,都是美國一方;10月派“中國通”訪華,開出買貨清單又是美方 ... 一直以來,輿論普遍認為美方佔了上風,但如前週五大幅改動協議的是中方,難道中央領導都忽然思想閉塞,不知道後果嗎?筆者認為這大概會是時機成熟罷了!

眾所週知,美國人從來都貪得無厭,不斷大量印鈔揮霍,倒頭來卻要全世界為他們“埋單”,給您一紙借據(債券)你便應感激流涕,更不應奢望跟他們“共富貴”,因為那怕您多聽他們的話,自身有多勤奮,科技有多先進 ... 苟且偷生的結果都只一塌糊塗,日本就是我們最佳的“樣版”。

另一邊廂,蘇聯跟美國又是另一極端。當年蘇聯跟美國一樣,從德國取得大量高科技資料,加上幅員跨越歐亞大地,較全球任何國家都地大物博,可惜跟美國為首的西方國家完全割席,閉門製車結果讓管理上極其落後。

早年筆者看英國電視台節目分析認為。6、70年代,英國人把時間花了去示威,蘇聯人則把時間花在排隊上。買麵飽要排隊,買菜要排隊,買肉又要排隊 ... 如一天便花幾小時一來排隊。您或以為那不如多開幾間不就可以嗎?共產社會怎可能您說開就開!

或許是中央領導層以史為監,太軟弱會被美國蠶食,太硬則閉關自守,結果勢孤力弱,故中央採取的方法是“打打談談”,又或是“邊打邊談”的方法,軟硬兼施兩手準備,並保持跟歐亞諸國關系良好,開放市場吸收全球科技,或許能闖出另一片天 ...

事實上,美國總統特朗普表面強悍,實質卻不過是輸打贏要的投機份子,把美國選民愚弄於股掌之中。過去多輪談判說三道四外,協議尚未簽署就強砌中方違背協定 ... 但試問協議未簽,會是協議嗎?而所謂的公平,卻是中方違約美國可嚴刑懲處,反過來美方不守規,中國內地則不能哼半聲,那樣的協議恐怕比日本當年簽署廣場協議更糟糕!

此外,大幅更改協議的是中方,若然毫無勝算,內地豈會愚蠢自殘 ... 或許可視為就算自殘也有特朗普陪葬,若經濟稍有差池,他明年能否連任也是未知數,故民主黨樂意在後面扇風點火,好讓他們明年選舉更有勝算。

若然美國可處之泰然,就如特朗普口中的更為化算,早就應該大幅上調關稅,上週五甚至連那3250億美金關稅也應馬上去收。何以今天又在Twitter 上急急加碼道:中方在貿談中遭到重擊云云,若習近平政府不馬上低頭,待他下次任期時要求定必更辣 ... 這顯然是特總統夜行人吹口哨自我安慰,對中國要剮要殺何需說這麼多廢話。

中美兩國貿戰互鬥是人類歷史所未見,最終可以傷及兩國貿易,以至全經濟表現,繼而拖累全球股市急跌?關鍵在於兩國的財政與貨幣政策,這些中方必定比美方強得多。只要中央一聲令下,要減息有減息,要印鈔有印鈔,甚至大幅減稅降費。

惟特朗普政府光是一個美聯儲局局長飽威爾,也就已經老鼠拉龜。減稅降費?控制眾議院的民主黨豈會輕易在特總統臉上貼金,留待美副總統拜登吧!

故未來股市是升是跌,極需視乎中央行動。就短線而言,港股一下子按週大跌了5.31%或1509點,能本週出現反彈不足為奇,但29305點至29643點之間,既有10、20和50天平均線攔路,加上上週一介乎29384至29679點的大型裂口。

支持方面,上週五於28203點獲支持,這適逢該處正是100天與250天均線位置,也是港股由25450點升上30280點,回調升幅的38.2%所在。如果失守,下一關將會是去年雙底頸線的27260點,也即由25450點升上30280點,回調升幅的50%所在,建議短期港股只能波幅操作,低買高賣為主。

中投傲揚精選基金

基金經理

溫鋼城 https://www.mpfinance.com/fin/co ... &issue=20190513



精選樓盤
關税其實由美國埋單,所以才有寬限期!

Kudlow acknowledges U.S. consumers, not China, pay for tariffs on imports

Lawmakers slam Trump’s tariff increases on China

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow contradicted President Trump on May 12, saying American consumers would pay for tariffs on Chinese imports. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)

By Felicia Sonmez

May 12 at 5:16 PM

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow acknowledged Sunday that American consumers end up paying for the administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports, contradicting President Trump’s repeated inaccurate claim that the Chinese foot the bill.

In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” two days after U.S.-China trade talks endedwith no news of a deal, Kudlow was asked by host Chris Wallace about Trump’s claim.

“It’s not China that pays tariffs,” Wallace said. “It’s the American importers, the American companies that pay what, in effect, is a tax increase and oftentimes passes it on to U.S. consumers.”

“Fair enough,” Kudlow replied. “In fact, both sides will pay. Both sides will pay in these things.”

Pressed again by Wallace, Kudlow acknowledged that China does not actually “pay” the tariffs.

“No, but the Chinese will suffer GDP losses and so forth with respect to a diminishing export market,” he said.

Kudlow added that “both sides will suffer on this.”

[Fact Checker: Trump’s repeated claim that China is paying ‘billions’ in tariffs to the Treasury]

The latest round of trade talks ended Friday with no announcement of an agreement. This followed tweets from Trump defending his decision to more than double tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

“Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner — there is absolutely no need to rush — as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products,” Trump tweeted. “These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S.”

Trump’s top economic adviser was against tariffs for years. Then he joined the Trump White House.

Trump’s top economic adviser was against tariffs for years. Then he joined the Trump White House. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)

He also claimed that tariffs will “bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind.”

And Saturday, Trump suggested that the United States was “collecting” tariffs from China.

“Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting BIG TARIFFS!” Trump said in a tweet.

Trump insisted Sunday that the tariffs would be advantageous for the United States despite what Kudlow said.

“We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries,” the president tweeted.

Trump has argued that trade wars are “good and easy to win” and maintains that his tariffs are a useful way to force China to the negotiating table. But Democrats and a growing number of Republicans have voiced concern that Trump’s tariffs could undermine the past several years of robust economic growth.

The effect is being felt by industries across the country, from farmers in Iowa to auto manufacturers in Tennessee. Financial markets also have taken a dive amid the trade standoff, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index losing 2.18 percent last week, its worst week of the year.

On Sunday, figures on both sides of the aisle criticized Trump’s handling of the China trade talks.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), an ally of Trump, said on ABC News’s “This Week” that he is worried about the effect the tariffs will have on the U.S. economy.

Paul told host George Stephanopoulos that he is “very concerned” that Trump may enact permanent tariffs that will wind up hurting U.S. consumers, farmers and manufacturers.

“I know of a big company that told me that the tax cuts specifically helped them but that the tariffs are almost equal in punishing them,” Paul said, referring to the Republican-led tax overhaul passed in 2017. “The farmers in Kentucky are concerned about the tariffs, and I’ve talked to the administration about this. . . . The longer we’re involved in a tariff battle or a trade war, the better chance there is that we could actually enter into a recession because of it.”

In an appearance on CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” Henry M. Paulson Jr., who was treasury secretary under President George W. Bush, said that although “we don’t have many good tools” to put economic pressure on China, tariffs are not an ideal choice.

“They’re a tax on the American consumer,” said Paulson, who is chairman of the Paulson Institute and a former chief executive of Goldman Sachs. He added: “Will it hurt us? If this persists too long, it will. There’ll be a cost to it.”

Paulson said he would “prefer the tactic of working with our allies to put pressure” on China but described that approach as imperfect as well because U.S. allies are often risk-averse when it comes to dealing with the Chinese.

Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), a 2020 presidential candidate, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that the Trump administration has “failed to understand that we are stronger when we work with our allies on every issue, China included.”

“This president seems to believe and has a preference for conducting trade policy, economic policy, foreign policy by tweet,” Harris said. “And that’s irresponsible.”

Among the lawmakers defending Trump on Sunday was Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.).

“I’m 100 percent with the president,” Graham said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

Graham said that Trump is “trying to break the stranglehold China has” on the global supply chain, and that although American consumers will pay more, “eventually, China is going to get hurt more than us.”

“When you put tariffs on products coming out of China, it makes other countries a cheaper place to do business, which eventually moves market share away from China,” Graham said. “This is what Trump’s trying to do.”



其實打得貿易貿易戰,兩邊都唔方會好受,兩方都想快快解決問題。 好多人都覺得中方淡定有錢盛。 我返而覺得好似 中國用太極對美國狂人 MMA.





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引用:
原帖由 Hero@Sam 於 2019-5-13 10:04 AM 發表

其實打得貿易貿易戰,兩邊都唔方會好受,兩方都想快快解決問題。 好多人都覺得中方淡定有錢盛。 我返而覺得好似 中國用太極對美國狂人 MMA.
美國用關税把刀行著中國條頸迫簽城下之盟,日後稍有不遵就關税侍候,企圖令中國像日本經濟迷失數十年,無力與美國爭霸。與其飲鴆止渴,倒不如强硬應對有效。關税設寬限期,證明侵侵投鼠忌器,印證關税由美國埋單之說!侵侵狗急跳牆,只有繼續恫嚇,說有3250億美元貨品關税清單跟尾,又說若他連任,到時條件更辣,令人感覺他急不及待要迫中方盡快簽约!



引用:
原帖由 超能量 於 2019-5-13 10:18 AM 發表




美國用關税把刀行著中國條頸迫簽城下之盟,日後稍有不遵就關税侍候,企圖令中國像日本經濟迷失數十年,無力與美國爭霸。與其飲鴆止渴,倒不如强硬應對有效。關税設寬限期,證明侵侵投鼠忌器,印證關税由美國埋單之說!侵侵狗急跳牆,只有繼續恫嚇,說有3250億美元貨品關税清單跟尾,又說若他連任,到時條件更辣,令人感覺他急不及待要迫中方盡快簽约! ...
同意你的講法。 中國自從 加至25% 關鋭後還未定出 retaliation 方案。我相信一出全球股市會跌一枕。



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原帖由 超能量 於 2019-5-13 09:49 AM 發表

過去年多,中美貿易談判牽動著市場氣氛。大市遇好消息則升,壞消息則跌,這都是眾所週知。惟大家有否留意,一直在說三道四的,都是美國一方;10月派「中國通」訪華,開出買貨清單又是美方 ... 一直以來,輿論普遍認為美方佔了上風,但如前週五大幅改動協議的是中方,難道中央領導都忽然思想閉塞,不知道後果嗎?筆者認為這大概會是時機成熟罷了!

眾所週知,美國人從來都貪得無厭,不斷大量印鈔 ...
其實現在邊個急真係唔知呢, 不過中共唔急便慢慢等啦!! 哈哈....



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如果以後中美「 零亅貿易,到時老尾更冇運行。


侵侵急急如律令


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佢係焦急


唔到絕境,你唔會積極奮鬥,所以先設想已到絕境!
唔到死前,你唔會馬上行動,所以先設想已到死期!
成功失敗,不完全由自己決定,但你可以行動,去改運變命!

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原帖由 Hero@Sam 於 2019-5-13 10:04 AM 發表

其實打得貿易貿易戰,兩邊都唔方會好受,兩方都想快快解決問題。 好多人都覺得中方淡定有錢盛。 我返而覺得好似 中國用太極對美國狂人 MMA.
太乜鬼嘢極啦, 人用太極佢又話用太極, 真係笑死人, 都叫個豬嘜領導如果見到 "馬師傅", 便跪低請教嚇馬師傅啦, 記得要誠心啲跪呀..不過罷起自己是條大肥L領導人才去請教人呢, 如果不是人家不會傳你個豬嘜真傳 "奧義" 的!! 哈哈哈.......



中國知道蘇聯分裂國家。


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原帖由 feel100place 於 2019-5-13 10:44 AM 發表



太乜鬼嘢極啦, 人用太極佢又話用太極, 真係笑死人, 都叫個豬嘜領導如果見到 "馬師傅", 便跪低請教嚇馬師傅啦, 記得要誠心啲跪呀..不過罷起自己是條大肥L領導人才去請教人呢, 如果不是人家不會傳你個豬嘜真傳 "奧義" 的!! 哈哈哈....... ...
人一日總有幾次開始急既



其實看番上年經濟數據,米知誰勝誰負了。真是好鬼低智


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引用:
原帖由 simonwongtrue 於 2019-5-13 10:50 AM 發表

其實看番上年經濟數據,米知誰勝誰負了。真是好鬼低智
其實我覺得咩嘢數據都不用看呢, 效果已經明顯出現了! 這樣便可以了........



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