查看完整版本 : COP21

方九貞 2015-12-13 11:42 PM

COP21

目標 2C,盡可能 1.5C.

聽落就有啲計,但我就有疑問。。。


* 究竟會否為每個國家訂下排放量?IPCC 的 projection 唔準係人都知(十年前成日有張預測圖,尼幾年通常只聽到破乜乜記錄),真實暖化低於預測。如果以果堆預測做排放標準,1.5C 可能無難度;如果是根據實測硬指標 2C,會唔會唔駛點減都可以自動達到? 唔好以為越減得多就越好,有些地方的經濟民生會受減排影响的,尤其近年油價減左咁多,要人轉用風力和太陽能咪會貴好多?

* 最終會否又有國家走數,例如加拿大走京都協議?如果唔係先有錢撥出黎,真係只可以講句:信住先。



快啲完左尼個議題最好,三五日又聽到一單新聞,煩到死。順便也讓做過的硏究”正式”成為廢物。其實你問我依家出面係 21 定 22 度,我係答唔倒你的,但偏偏這 100 年升 1 度的升幅會不停成為新聞。

反正污染是要處理的,就不要燒吧。



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方九貞 2015-12-14 09:22 PM

走數機會高。

最衰咪又係美國佬,好心做壞事。如果唔係開採頁岩氣(都係要燒),啲石油天然氣煤咪價高,到時咪個個去風力發電太陽能囉。



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方九貞 2015-12-15 09:34 AM

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/195-nations-approve-historic-climate-accord

// By 2020, countries will release their long-term plans to cut emissions. Every five years, countries will reassess their progress and tweak their carbon-cutting goals.

For developed countries, the plan is to reverse the rise in carbon emissions as soon as possible. Developing countries such Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Rwanda get more leeway on when they have to start cutting back carbon emissions. They also will get help: technological support and a $100-billion-a-year fund provided by developed countries by 2020. //


每 5 年 revise,氣温唔升咪唔駛轉 clean energy?

一年 7800 億港紙。。。呢個好似最實際,但講好邊個出未?



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方九貞 2015-12-15 09:47 AM

尼個先係重點吧:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund



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方九貞 2015-12-15 09:59 AM

// During the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009, rich countries had committed to fund Green Climate Funds for developing countries by investing USD 100 billion annually from 2013 to 2020.

However, the total capital of Green Climate Fund only reached USD 10 billion by 2014. Meanwhile, Beijing has been supportive of funding. In September 2015, China announced the establishment of South-South Cooperation Fund on Climate Change by investing RMB 20 billion (3.1 billion U.S. dollars). //


2013-2020,原來已經走緊數? 中國咁大都係出 3.1b (a year?),你果 100b a year 邊個啃???



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方九貞 2015-12-15 10:06 AM

http://english.cntv.cn/2015/12/03/ARTI1449128227128288.shtml

// China has adopted green and sustainable development as a long-term strategy. Compared with 2005, by 2014 China’s total CO2 emissions had dropped by 33.8% and the energy intensity per unit of GDP (gross domestic product) reduced by 29.9%. The country would initiate a carbon emission trading system in 2017. //


減 33.8% 作新聞下嘛尼個 source...



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方九貞 2015-12-16 06:43 PM

[img]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cWtK-c6omRY/VnE4fhKzb5I/AAAAAAAALqE/MTfVlRsVoRU/s1600/Screenshot_2015-12-15-10-09-14.png[/img]


再睇下個二氧化碳排放表,就更加唔明尼 19x 個國家做乜九。拖時間定拖人落水?

看頭十個排放國,近十年來升的是中國和印度,美國就 level 左,歐洲就已經明顯跌緊。

如果講減排,你中美印三國自己拆掂佢已解決了大部分。錢又係佢地最多,依家反而又要"富裕國"捐錢出黎支持發展中國家? 果啲國家排放零頭咋喎! 又砌黎砌去都砌唔倒 fund 條數出黎,儍的嗎? 有錢自己搞掂自己就夠啦!

講道義,梗係要幫中印先啦,你估世界工廠啲野咁平冇代價嘅?

方九貞 2015-12-19 10:45 AM

減排(更廣義是簡約生活),如果唔係各地政府強制執行而只得鼓勵教育自願的話,肯定是得淡笑,尤其在西方崇尚個人自由,又大洗慣(例:汽水也可以無限 refill),更難做到。

中國成為 CO2 最大排放國,才可以近年 gdp 保 8 保 7。要減排,gdp 增長預測也只能一拼減,是保 3? 2? 1? 沒聽說過吧。最近只聞 pm2.5 紅色警告,污染物飄到台灣仍很濃烈,完全看不到有減排減污跡象。

中國不做或做不到,全球吹嘘減排已斷了單臂。COP21 各國商議在 2020 提交減排方案,這五年可能是飆 gdp 的最後機會,有得燒便要狂燒,因此從現在到 2020,估計中國地區空氣污染會更趨嚴重,賣口罩空氣清新的也要趕快撈一筆。2020 後的減排和 gdp 增長方案是怎樣,真的不敢提,會是很大的躍進。。。



不要說中國,香港這個步伐快的城市也難簡約生活啦: 星期日地鐵先改成 15 分鐘一班(仲要禁止埋其他交通工具加班),聖誕新年沒燈飾沒煙花,街上學國內放單車給租用(租金順便撥入環保)。。。都唔會有人支持啦。



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sylim 2015-12-23 08:50 PM

所謂減排只係口號 過多幾年就會話減唔到 睇美國既態度就知
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